Which scam is it?
Message ID: 60062
Posted By: zarathustrius
Posted On: 2003-11-10 16:46:00
Subject: Which scam is it?
Recs: 20
was Re: How will execs profit?
The more I look at this the more I am convinced it is not a simple insider stock scam. Granted, Canopy already pulled some significant $ out, but the execs can't bail bigtime without inviting unwanted scrutiny. They know the SEC is resource starved (and likely supported anyone running for office who would help keep it that way), but they also know that the SEC can't ignore blatant scams. I am becoming convinced that the conspiracy theorists advancing the anti-Linux FUD theory have a point. The financial gain by insiders (at least the overt gain by selling SCOX stock) cannot be the sum total of this story. I see only two plausible alternatives:
1) SCOX/McBride thought they could scare up a buyout from IBM and didn't think much beyond that. There is considerable evidence for this angle.
2) SCOX is a pawn played by bigger fish in a much broader battle against incursions by OSS in general and Linux in particular. The evidence for this is much less obvious and consists primarily of sometimes lengthy chains of inference, but there is certainly a LOT to be gained and lost in this bigger war.
Of course, it is possible that there is something of both going on here. SCOX/McBride started out with the "extort IBM buyout" idea and converted to the "take bigger fish's money for FUD campaign" afte it became clear IBM wasn't buying. If the latter has become the strategy, the likely profit for executives will be muc more difficult to track. Look for them to be employed, appointed to boards, get consulting deals, buy early IPOs from insider allocations, etc. in the future. This would be MUCH harder to track and would almost certainly fly under SEC radar. It does require a lot of trust on the part of SCOX executives, but if they did start with the IBM buyout idea and got sucked into litigation that could otherwise destroy their careers, thatmight be the only profitable option left them...
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The text of this Yahoo Message Board post has been licensed for
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"zarathustrius" under the following license:
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Posted By: zarathustrius
Posted On: 2003-11-10 16:46:00
Subject: Which scam is it?
Recs: 20
was Re: How will execs profit?
The more I look at this the more I am convinced it is not a simple insider stock scam. Granted, Canopy already pulled some significant $ out, but the execs can't bail bigtime without inviting unwanted scrutiny. They know the SEC is resource starved (and likely supported anyone running for office who would help keep it that way), but they also know that the SEC can't ignore blatant scams. I am becoming convinced that the conspiracy theorists advancing the anti-Linux FUD theory have a point. The financial gain by insiders (at least the overt gain by selling SCOX stock) cannot be the sum total of this story. I see only two plausible alternatives:
1) SCOX/McBride thought they could scare up a buyout from IBM and didn't think much beyond that. There is considerable evidence for this angle.
2) SCOX is a pawn played by bigger fish in a much broader battle against incursions by OSS in general and Linux in particular. The evidence for this is much less obvious and consists primarily of sometimes lengthy chains of inference, but there is certainly a LOT to be gained and lost in this bigger war.
Of course, it is possible that there is something of both going on here. SCOX/McBride started out with the "extort IBM buyout" idea and converted to the "take bigger fish's money for FUD campaign" afte it became clear IBM wasn't buying. If the latter has become the strategy, the likely profit for executives will be muc more difficult to track. Look for them to be employed, appointed to boards, get consulting deals, buy early IPOs from insider allocations, etc. in the future. This would be MUCH harder to track and would almost certainly fly under SEC radar. It does require a lot of trust on the part of SCOX executives, but if they did start with the IBM buyout idea and got sucked into litigation that could otherwise destroy their careers, thatmight be the only profitable option left them...
------------------------------------------------------------
The text of this Yahoo Message Board post has been licensed for
copying and distribution by the Yahoo Message Board user
"zarathustrius" under the following license:
License: CC Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike v2.0
------------------------------------------------------------