Of bounces and forums
Message ID: 163646
Posted By: heimdal31
Posted On: 2004-08-05 14:55:00
Subject: Of Bounces and Forums
Recs: 13
Last year's SCOForum occurred a little later in the month than this year's and was rife with many more contradictions than this years.
Last year, SCO planned to show concrete examples of infringing code and those involved in the scam fully expected a huge bounce to come out of it. To their chagrin, by Tuesday morning their code samples had leaked and the community had torn it to shreds. I'm sure they expected a big fall. However, by Wednesday Cohen of the Royce Technology Fund had gone to work and Thursday the SCOForum price spike had begun. Lots of ironic contradictions in all of that.
On Friday 15 Aug last year, the Fri before SCOForum, SCO closed at 10.30. On Thursday, the Cohen spike (see www.threenorth.com/cohen.html) began and SCO hit 12.66 on volume of 750K. The volume peaked the following Monday with over 1M shares and the price peaked over 20 about a month later, before falling back to 14 and then peaking even higher with the PIPE deal a month after that in October.
However, undeniably last year, SCO got a big spike out of its SCOForum where it concentrated on its litigation efforts--even if much of that spike could be contributed to Cohen.
This year, they concentrate on products, but they do get Lie-ing's at Forbes to give them some good FUD which creates a volume and price spike. However, after the morning flurry, the volume will be lucky to hit 400K and while it will likely stay above 5/share for a few days, I'm willing to bet that barring successful FUD, we've already seen the peak of this SCOForum bounce.
The close last Friday, before SCOForum, was 4.54. Let's be nice and assume they pump it up to 5.30 by close. That means that the close after SCOForum and its FUD this year resulted in a price spike of all of 77 cents. (Or to be generous a premium of 17% over the Friday close).
The comparison for the same SCOForum period last year shows a $2.36 increase for 23%, but remember the spike was just starting on the Thursday after SCOForum. This year, I predict it had already run its course a few hours after the opening bell this morning.
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Posted By: heimdal31
Posted On: 2004-08-05 14:55:00
Subject: Of Bounces and Forums
Recs: 13
Last year's SCOForum occurred a little later in the month than this year's and was rife with many more contradictions than this years.
Last year, SCO planned to show concrete examples of infringing code and those involved in the scam fully expected a huge bounce to come out of it. To their chagrin, by Tuesday morning their code samples had leaked and the community had torn it to shreds. I'm sure they expected a big fall. However, by Wednesday Cohen of the Royce Technology Fund had gone to work and Thursday the SCOForum price spike had begun. Lots of ironic contradictions in all of that.
On Friday 15 Aug last year, the Fri before SCOForum, SCO closed at 10.30. On Thursday, the Cohen spike (see www.threenorth.com/cohen.html) began and SCO hit 12.66 on volume of 750K. The volume peaked the following Monday with over 1M shares and the price peaked over 20 about a month later, before falling back to 14 and then peaking even higher with the PIPE deal a month after that in October.
However, undeniably last year, SCO got a big spike out of its SCOForum where it concentrated on its litigation efforts--even if much of that spike could be contributed to Cohen.
This year, they concentrate on products, but they do get Lie-ing's at Forbes to give them some good FUD which creates a volume and price spike. However, after the morning flurry, the volume will be lucky to hit 400K and while it will likely stay above 5/share for a few days, I'm willing to bet that barring successful FUD, we've already seen the peak of this SCOForum bounce.
The close last Friday, before SCOForum, was 4.54. Let's be nice and assume they pump it up to 5.30 by close. That means that the close after SCOForum and its FUD this year resulted in a price spike of all of 77 cents. (Or to be generous a premium of 17% over the Friday close).
The comparison for the same SCOForum period last year shows a $2.36 increase for 23%, but remember the spike was just starting on the Thursday after SCOForum. This year, I predict it had already run its course a few hours after the opening bell this morning.
------------------------------------------------------------
The text of this Yahoo Message Board post has been licensed for
copying and distribution by the Yahoo Message Board user "heimdal31"
under the following license:
License: CC Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike v2.0
------------------------------------------------------------